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Just in time for fantasy football season, The Fantasy Football Girl, Liz Loza, is here to give you a hand. She answers everything from who are the sleeper picks this season to her predictions for her favorite team, the Chicago Bears! Even if this is your first time participating in a league, Liz has got you covered!
What are your best tips to first time fantasy football players?
Once someone has decided to take the fantasy plunge, I think becoming familiar with their chosen host site’s interface and draft room makes a lot of sense. Understanding everything, from how the player queue works to developing a strategy, will contribute to an owner’s comfortability on draft day.
That’s why I’m such a huge believer in mock drafts. They’re generally free and give users the opportunity to feel what it’s like to be on the clock. Plus, after a few mocks, patterns start to emerge, which allow fantasy players to create their personal rankings and determine what they think will make for a successful roster.
Who are your sleeper picks this season?
QB – Ryan Tannehill (MIA) Entering his third season in the NFL, Ryan Tannehill is primed for a breakout. He has a serviceable stable of weapons in Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Charles Clay, as well as promise in the backfield with second year running back Lamar Miller. His improved offensive line should provide him with more protection and therefore more time. That’s good news since in Bill Lazor’s offense he’s going to need to think fast and remain accurate. Right now Tanny is going in the 14th round of most drafts. I wouldn’t recommend him as a QB1, but he presents great QB2 value.
RB – Bernard Pierce (BAL) Previously thought of as Ray Rice’s handcuff, Bernard Pierce is having a solid preseason. Over the past two weeks, he’s totaled 92 yards on only 17 carries and is averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry. If Pierce can continue this momentum into the regular season and capitalize on Ray Rice’s absence in the first two weeks, then there’s a good chance he’ll remain a heavily featured part of Baltimore’s offense. Currently being drafted in the late seventh to early eighth rounds, I like Pierce’s chances over other guys like MJD and Danny Woodhead who are going around the same time.
WR – Doug Baldwin (SEA) I plucked Baldwin off the waiver wire late last season and talked up his sleeper potential on the X’s and Y’s Podcast. This year I’m not waiting. The Stanford alum scored 4 TDs in 7 of his final regular season games. That’s pretty surprising, right? With Sidney Rice out of the league and Golden Tate in Detroit, Baldwin should see an uptick in opportunities and production. Yes, the Seahawks like to run and they will continue to favor a ground game. But that doesn’t mean that Russell Wilson won’t be entrusted with more of the offense. Baldwin is a steal of a deal in the 14th round. Just remember… you heard it here first.
TE – Travis Kelce (KC) Anyone who follows me knows that I love a big tight end. So it makes sense that I’ve been high on Kelce since he was selected by the Chiefs in 2013. In fact, I drafted him on a dynasty team this time last year. Unfortunately, he sat out all of last season due to a microfracture injury on his knee. If the preseason is any indication, however, he is fully healed and ready to reel in some TDs. Right now Anthony Fasano is the starter in Kansas City, but I don’t suspect that will be the case for much longer. Fasano can block all day, but Kelce’s mitts are made for pigskin. Given KC’s lack of depth at receiver and Alex Smith’s proclivity towards the check down, Kelce has breakout written all over him.
What about “fool’s gold” picks, players who look like they will do well, but will probably end up being a bust for your team?
QB – Nick Foles (PHI) I might be in the minority on this one, but I’m projecting a sophomore slump for the Eagle’s starting quarterback. Yes, Chip Kelly’s system benefits a QB’s production, but without a reliable red zone target like DeSean Jackson in the offense, I don’t think Foles will be able to repeat what he did in 2013. You can bet that his INTs will go up and his TDs will slip. With proven fantasy starters like Tony Romo and Philip Rivers going 2-4 rounds later, there’s no reason to spend a seventh rounder of Philly’s Foles.
RB – Knowshon Moreno (MIA) Peyton Manning did a lot of things in 2013. He took his team to the Super Bowl, he broke the record for the most touchdown passes thrown in a season, and he resurrected Knowshon Moreno’s fantasy relevance. Without Petyon as part of the equation, however, another miraculous season isn’t in the cards for the former Bronco. Having missed Miami’s first two preseason games due to offseason knee surgery, the six year vet (who was absent for a combined total of seventeen weeks in 2011 and 2012) is out of shape and playing second fiddle to third year back Lamar Miller. Moreno is being drafted simply because of name recognition and, in my opinion, should not be rostered.
WR – Dwayne Bowe (KC) How this guy is being drafted – even in the 10th round – is beyond me. He’s banged up, suspended for the first game of the regular season, and on a team with a quarterback who doesn’t throw a deep ball. Plus, he hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season since 2011. No thank you. I’d rather take someone like DeAndre Hopkins or even Kenny Britt who offer much more upside.
TE – Jordan Reed (WAS) This kid’s talent is directly proportional to his injury woes. An incredible athlete with superb route running ability, Reed has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career. In fact, he missed seven games in 2013 and six of those were due to a concussion. Furthermore, he’ll have to adapt to Jay Gruden’s offense, which didn’t particularly showcase the tight end position in Cincy last year. While I like his potential very much, I don’t think he should be the seventh TE off the board.
The Denver Broncos’ offense was incredible last season when it came to delivering fantasy points. Do you think they will be as good this season?
Historically quarterbacks regress by 10 – 12 touchdowns the year after they have a career season. That would mean Peyton Manning is on track to score roughly 45 TDs, which is six more than Drew Brees managed last year. So to answer your question, yes, the Broncos are completely capable of doing what they did last year. They moved some pieces around, but for the most part their studs are still in place. Plus, they made some incredible improvements on defense by adding DeMarcus Ware and Aquib Talib. I’m not saying they’re going to win the Super Bowl, but they’re definitely going to take a run at it.
A lot of teams drafted quarterbacks this season, including the Vikings and the Browns. Which rookie quarterback do you expect to have the most success this season?
Teddy Bridgewater was my pick back in April, and is still my choice for September. Yes, he’s had a shaky preseason, but as the weeks have progressed so has his composure. Right now Matt Cassel is the starter in Minnesota. I’m not sure exactly when the Vikings will make the switch, but I’d be shocked if Bridgewater doesn’t start by at least Week 11. Admittedly, Blake Bortles has been the surprise of the preseason. He’s shown an incredible amount of confidence and poise, making it rather difficult for Jacksonville to stick with Chad Hanne. While the Jags offense has a ton of potential, it’s still very young.
Even if Bortles does surpass Henne on the depth chart, his cast of supporting characters just isn’t as good as Bridgewater’s. Therefore, if you’re looking for immediate value then Teddy is your guy. Bills receiver Sammy Watkins has impressed in camp, but he is paired with a quarterback who still has to prove himself. Should people still pick him up? Not in the eight round, which is where he’s currently going. If we’re talking about redraft leagues then I’d rather have a rookie like Kelvin Benjamin or a second year receiver like Justin Hunter, both of whom are falling off the board after Watkins. However, if Watkins falls to the 11th round then by all means scoop him up.
What is your opinion of the NFL’s handling of the Ray Rice situation?
My tweet from the day the news broke sums up my feelings on the situation perfectly.
Of course, I have to ask how you think your Chicago Bears will do this season and which players people should pick up in their fantasy leagues?
The NFC North is looking intensely competitive this season. All four teams have made impressive improvements to their respective squads. Of course I’m giving the advantage to the Bears, but that goes without saying. Frankly, I think all of their offensive weapons should be rostered in fantasy this season. I’ve ranked their four most talked about players in order of who I think will outperform their 2013 numbers below:
1) Jay Cutler The knock against the Bears QB is, of course, that he likes to miss giant chunks of the season. In fact, he hasn’t played a full 16 games as the Windy City’s signal caller since 2009. According to head coach Marc Trestman, however, Cutty has recently focused on becoming “bigger” and “stronger” in an attempt to address his durability issues. Assuming that’s true, and also taking into consideration that this will be his second year in the “Quarterback Whisperer’s” up-tempo offense, I think No. 6 will absolutely improve on his finish as 23rd best fantasy QB in 2013. Plus, he has one of the best receiving corps in the league at his disposal. The only place to go is up! Knowing that he averaged over 21 fantasy points per game (when he was actually playing) and considering that he’s currently going in the tenth round of some drafts, Cutler is a tempting QB1 prospect.
2) Alshon Jeffery The South Carolina product stormed onto the fantasy scene last season. In standard scoring leagues, he was the eighth most productive fantasy WR, besting guys like Eric Decker and DJax. Those numbers will be tough to beat in 2014, but with youth and a second year in Trestman’s offense, there’s no reason to believe Jeffery won’t continue to develop into a championship-winning stud.
3) Brandon Marshall In 2013, the veteran receiver racked up 126 fewer yards than the younger Jeffery, but also scored 5 more touchdowns. In standard scoring leagues, that gave Marshall the edge by roughly 11 fantasy points, placing him amongst the top 5 fantasy receivers of last season. Having just signed a giant contract, and exhibiting improved mental health – maybe the best he’s ever shown – I think Marshall will remain a fantasy stud. I just don’t know that he can improve drastically on his numbers… truthfully, there isn’t much room for improvement.
4) Matt Forte The Bears RB1 had the best statistical season of his career in 2013, racking up over 1,900 all-purpose yards and scoring 12 TDs. Those numbers placed Forte amongst the top five fantasy backs last year. He also managed to stay healthy through the 2013 season, which is something he hadn’t done since 2010. Granted, the o-line of yesteryear didn’t do Forte (or Cutler, for that matter) any favors. Still, considering the volatility of the position, and the fact that No. 11 is just a year-and-a-half away from being 30, I’m a bit worried that he’s hit his fantasy ceiling.
Need more Liz? Of course you do! You can check her out on her own website TheFantasyFootballGirl.com as well as her podcast available on iTunes, X’s and Y’s Podcast. Still want more Liz? Check her out on Twitter, @TheFFGirl!
